Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury: Preview, Predictions & Betting Analysis
Match Overview
Las Vegas Aces go in as commanding favourites here, and the prices leave little doubt.
Las Vegas Aces welcome Phoenix Mercury in this WNBA game, at Michelob Ultra Arena, US on Saturday, July 11, 2026.
Las Vegas Aces bring 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 (W-L-D-L-L, most recent first), averaging 87.6 points scored and 92.4 conceded.
Phoenix Mercury bring 2 wins and 3 defeats from their last 5 (L-L-W-W-L, most recent first), averaging 82.2 points scored and 80.4 conceded.
In 1 previous meeting, Las Vegas Aces have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 0. Their most recent meeting finished 86-76 to Las Vegas Aces. Those meetings have averaged 162.0 points.
Market Read
Bookmakers make Las Vegas Aces strong favourites at 1.25, a 78% chance across 26 books.
Best prices across the market: Las Vegas Aces at 1.25 (78%), Phoenix Mercury at 4.60 (22%).
The model projects around 92-81 points, favouring Las Vegas Aces by about 11 points (derived from totals + spread lines).
Value & Signals
The 26 books are in tight agreement, just 4% between the best and worst price, which makes this a higher-confidence read.
Betting Verdict
For a longer shot, Phoenix Mercury are available at 4.60 (22%).
Las Vegas Aces are the market's pick at 78%. There's no standout price edge here, so it's a confidence call rather than a value one. Book agreement rates this a high-confidence call.
