Cesar Almeida vs Damian Pinas - Sat, 11 Jul 2026

Cesar Almeida

Kickoff

Tomorrow

21:00

Damian Pinas

31% Cesar Almeida69% Damian Pinas

Tomorrow • 21:00

Upcoming

UFC

T-Mobile Arena, US

Cesar Almeida vs Damian Pinas Prediction

Why this pick

Fair price7% spread

Fairly priced: best 1.44 sits on the 1.38 consensus. Moderate 7% spread across 24 books.

Outcome

Damian Pinas Win

1.44@ Nordicbet

Most Probable68.7%

Place Bet

Win Prediction

Building price history

The consensus line fills in as bookmakers reprice this match. Check back soon.

Cesar Almeida31.3%

Damian Pinas68.7%

All Bets & Odds

Cesar Almeida

31.3%

Best 3.25

Damian Pinas

68.7%

Best 1.44

Match Result Odds

Live odds across top bookmakers

#	Bookmaker	Cesar Almeida	Damian Pinas	Payout %
1	Jack	2.99	1.34	92.5%
2	Pinnacle	3.12	1.40	96.7%
3	Betpanda	2.87	1.38	93.2%
4	DraftKings	3.10	1.39	95.9%
5	Nordicbet	2.88	1.44	96%
6	Betsson	2.88	1.44	96%
7	Betfairexchange	3.25	1.42	98.8%
8	Bovada	3.05	1.41	96.3%
9	Paddy Power	2.88	1.40	94.2%
10	Betfairsportsbook	2.88	1.40	94.2%
11	BetMGM	3.00	1.40	95.5%
12	Kalshi	3.08	1.40	96.2%
13	Betonline	3.15	1.39	96.5%
14	FanDuel	3.05	1.39	95.2%
15	Hard Rock Bet	3.10	1.39	95.7%
16	Sportsbet	3.08	1.38	95.3%
17	Ladbrokes	3.05	1.38	95%
18	Tabtouch	3.05	1.38	94.9%
19	Betparx	3.05	1.38	94.9%
20	BBallybet	3.05	1.38	94.9%
21	Coolbet	3.25	1.38	96.7%
22	BetRivers	3.05	1.38	94.9%
23	PointsBet	3.10	1.37	95%
24	888sport	3.05	1.36	94.3%
25	Caesars	3.25	1.36	96.1%
26	Fliff	3.05	1.36	94.3%
27	Fanatics	3.15	1.36	95.2%
28	Unibet Region	3.05	1.38	95%
29	Polymarket Closed	3.21	1.42	98.4%

Live oddsAll odds are subject to changeShowing 6 of 29

Value & Signals

Best Value

Where the best price beats the market consensus.

Cesar Almeida+1.6% edge

Market consensus

3.19

31.3%

Best price

3.25

Caesars

Caesars’s 3.25 beats the 3.19 consensus, about $1.60 of value per $100 placed.

Best Price

Same bet, cheapest book. Line-shop this market across sportsbooks.

Outcome	Avg	Best	/ $100
Cesar Almeida	3.05	3.25 Caesars	+$19.59	Bet
Damian Pinas	1.39	1.44 Nordicbet	+$5.39	Bet

Fighters

Tale of the Tape

Cesar Almeida"Cesinha"

Damian Pinas"The Baba Yaga"

Physical

—

Age

—

6'1"

Height

6'1"

74"

Reach

79.5"

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Middleweight

Class

Middleweight

Record

7-2-0W-L-D9-1-0

Cesar Almeida5-0-2

Damian Pinas8-1-0

KO/TKO Submission Decision

Market Analytics

Expected Outcome

Damian Pinas by KO/TKO

42% most likely

KO/TKO59%

Submission14%

Decision27%

Derived from method-of-victory market

Market Activity

Low

Bookmakers0

Odds Updates (7d)0

Line movement (7d)

Cesar Almeida3.19—

Damian Pinas1.46—

Match Stats History

Recent Form

Last 5

Cesar Almeida0W 0D 0L

No recent matches

Damian Pinas0W 0D 0L

No recent matches

Match Preview

Cesar Almeida vs Damian Pinas: Preview, Predictions & Betting Analysis

Cesar Almeidavs

Damian Pinas·UFC

69%Damian Pinas win probability

Mediumconfidence

Match Overview

Damian Pinas hold the edge on the numbers, but this UFC bout is far from a foregone conclusion.

Cesar Almeida meet Damian Pinas in this UFC bout, at T-Mobile Arena, US on Saturday, July 11, 2026.

Market Read

Bookmakers make Damian Pinas clear favourites at 1.44, a 69% chance across 24 books.

Best prices across the market: Damian Pinas at 1.44 (69%), Cesar Almeida at 3.25 (31%).

Most likely: Damian Pinas by KO/TKO (derived from method-of-victory market).

Value & Signals

There's a moderate 7% gap between the best and worst of 24 books.

Betting Verdict

For a longer shot, Cesar Almeida are available at 3.25 (31%).

Our Pick: Damian Pinas

Damian Pinas are the market's pick at 69%. There's no standout price edge here, so it's a confidence call rather than a value one. Book agreement rates this a medium-confidence call.

Bet Damian Pinas 1.44 at Nordicbet

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Cesar Almeida vs Damian Pinas?

Our model makes Damian Pinas the clear favourite at a 69% win probability versus Cesar Almeida 31%. Best bet: Damian Pinas to win at 1.44.

What are the odds for Cesar Almeida vs Damian Pinas?

The best available prices are Cesar Almeida 3.25, Damian Pinas 1.44. The best price you can back on Damian Pinas is 1.44 with Nordicbet, about a 69% chance, compared across 24 sportsbooks and updated live.

How is Cesar Almeida vs Damian Pinas likely to end?

Our model's most likely finish is Damian Pinas by KO/TKO at 42%. Across both fighters the method odds are KO/TKO 59%, Submission 14%, Decision 27% (derived from method-of-victory market).

When do Cesar Almeida and Damian Pinas fight?

Cesar Almeida vs Damian Pinas is scheduled for Saturday, 11 July 2026 at 17:00 at T-Mobile Arena, US.

Where can I bet on Cesar Almeida vs Damian Pinas?

Compare live odds from 24 sportsbooks on this page. Nordicbet currently has the best price on Damian Pinas at 1.44.

What's Next

Upcoming in UFC

Bet

Your Pick

Damian Pinas

Nordicbet

1.44

Stake

Payout+$44.10

$144.10

Probability: 69.4%

Bet at Nordicbet

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