Kai Kamaka III vs Luke Riley - Sat, 11 Jul 2026

Kai Kamaka III

Kickoff

Tomorrow

21:00

Luke Riley

33% Kai Kamaka III67% Luke Riley

Tomorrow • 21:00

Upcoming

UFC

T-Mobile Arena, US

Kai Kamaka III vs Luke Riley Prediction

Why this pick

Fair price6% spread

Fairly priced: best 1.46 sits on the 1.43 consensus. Moderate 6% spread across 23 books.

Outcome

Luke Riley Win

1.46@ Pinnacle

Most Probable66.8%

Place Bet

Win Prediction

Building price history

The consensus line fills in as bookmakers reprice this match. Check back soon.

Kai Kamaka III33.2%

Luke Riley66.8%

All Bets & Odds

Kai Kamaka III

33.2%

Best 3.15

Luke Riley

66.8%

Best 1.46

Match Result Odds

Live odds across top bookmakers

#	Bookmaker	Kai Kamaka III	Luke Riley	Payout %
1	Jack	2.74	1.40	92.7%
2	Pinnacle	2.87	1.46	96.8%
3	Betpanda	2.70	1.42	93.1%
4	DraftKings	2.85	1.44	95.8%
5	Betfairexchange	2.84	1.46	96.5%
6	Kalshi	2.81	1.46	96%
7	Caesars	2.80	1.46	95.7%
8	Hard Rock Bet	2.75	1.46	95.2%
9	Paddy Power	2.75	1.44	94.7%
10	Betfairsportsbook	2.75	1.44	94.6%
11	Betonline	2.95	1.44	96.5%
12	Tabtouch	2.80	1.44	94.9%
13	Betparx	2.80	1.44	94.9%
14	BBallybet	2.80	1.44	94.9%
15	BetRivers	2.80	1.44	94.9%
16	FanDuel	2.86	1.43	95.2%
17	Bovada	2.95	1.43	96.1%
18	BetMGM	2.95	1.43	96.1%
19	Coolbet	2.95	1.43	96.1%
20	Fanatics	2.90	1.43	95.6%
21	PointsBet	2.90	1.42	95.3%
22	Sportsbet	2.89	1.42	95.2%
23	Ladbrokes	3.00	1.40	95.5%
24	Fliff	2.95	1.39	94.3%
25	Nordicbet	3.15	1.38	96%
26	Betsson	3.15	1.38	96%
27	Unibet Region	2.80	1.44	95.1%
28	Polymarket Closed	3.31	1.40	98.4%

Live oddsAll odds are subject to changeShowing 6 of 28

Value & Signals

Best Value

Where the best price beats the market consensus.

Kai Kamaka III+4.5% edge

Market consensus

3.01

33.2%

Best price

3.15

Nordicbet

Nordicbet’s 3.15 beats the 3.01 consensus, about $4.50 of value per $100 placed.

Best Price

Same bet, cheapest book. Line-shop this market across sportsbooks.

Outcome	Avg	Best	/ $100
Kai Kamaka III	2.87	3.15 Nordicbet	+$27.85	Bet
Luke Riley	1.43	1.46 Pinnacle	+$3.29	Bet

Fighters

Tale of the Tape

Kai Kamaka III"The Fighting Hawaiian"

Luke Riley

Physical

Age

—

5'7"

Height

—

69"

Reach

—

Orthodox

Stance

—

Featherweight

Class

—

Record

9-4-1W-L-D—

Kai Kamaka III0-1-8

Luke Riley0-0-0

KO/TKO Submission Decision

Market Analytics

Expected Outcome

Luke Riley by Decision

35% most likely

KO/TKO34%

Submission10%

Decision56%

Derived from method-of-victory market

Market Activity

Low

Bookmakers0

Odds Updates (7d)0

Line movement (7d)

Kai Kamaka III3.01—

Luke Riley1.50—

Match Stats History

Recent Form

Last 5

Kai Kamaka III0W 0D 0L

No recent matches

Luke Riley0W 0D 0L

No recent matches

Match Preview

Kai Kamaka III vs Luke Riley: Preview, Predictions & Betting Analysis

Kai Kamaka IIIvs

Luke Riley·UFC

67%Luke Riley win probability

Mediumconfidence

Match Overview

Luke Riley hold the edge on the numbers, but this UFC matchup is far from a foregone conclusion.

Kai Kamaka III meet Luke Riley in this UFC matchup, at T-Mobile Arena, US on Saturday, July 11, 2026.

Market Read

Bookmakers make Luke Riley clear favourites at 1.46, a 67% chance across 23 books.

Best prices across the market: Luke Riley at 1.46 (67%), Kai Kamaka III at 3.15 (33%).

Most likely: Luke Riley by Decision (derived from method-of-victory market).

Value & Signals

There's a moderate 6% gap between the best and worst of 23 books.

Betting Verdict

For a longer shot, Kai Kamaka III are available at 3.15 (33%).

Our Pick: Luke Riley

Luke Riley are the market's pick at 67%. There's no standout price edge here, so it's a confidence call rather than a value one. Book agreement rates this a medium-confidence call.

Bet Luke Riley 1.46 at Pinnacle

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Kai Kamaka III vs Luke Riley?

Our model makes Luke Riley the clear favourite at a 67% win probability versus Kai Kamaka III 33%. Best bet: Luke Riley to win at 1.46.

What are the odds for Kai Kamaka III vs Luke Riley?

The best available prices are Kai Kamaka III 3.15, Luke Riley 1.46. The best price you can back on Luke Riley is 1.46 with Pinnacle, about a 68% chance, compared across 23 sportsbooks and updated live.

How is Kai Kamaka III vs Luke Riley likely to end?

Our model's most likely finish is Luke Riley by Decision at 35%. Across both fighters the method odds are KO/TKO 34%, Submission 10%, Decision 56% (derived from method-of-victory market).

When do Kai Kamaka III and Luke Riley fight?

Kai Kamaka III vs Luke Riley is scheduled for Saturday, 11 July 2026 at 17:00 at T-Mobile Arena, US.

Where can I bet on Kai Kamaka III vs Luke Riley?

Compare live odds from 23 sportsbooks on this page. Pinnacle currently has the best price on Luke Riley at 1.46.

What's Next

Upcoming in UFC

Bet

Your Pick

Luke Riley

Pinnacle

1.46

Stake

Payout+$46.10

$146.10

Probability: 68.4%

Bet at Pinnacle

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