Sun, 2 Aug 2026

Toluca

Home

Kickoff

Mon, 3 Aug

01:00

Necaxa

Away

65% Toluca20% draw15% Necaxa

Mon, 3 Aug • 01:00

Upcoming

Liga MX

Toluca vs Necaxa Prediction

Q: When do Toluca and Necaxa play?

Toluca vs Necaxa kicks off on Monday, 3 August 2026 at 01:00 UTC.

Value

Fair

Pays what it's worth

Price range

1.42–1.55

Best pays 9% more

Market

38books

8% spread across books

Match Result

Toluca WinToluca Win

1.55@ BetOnline

Most Probable64.8%

Bet Now

Win Prediction

Building price history

The consensus line fills in as bookmakers reprice this match. Check back soon.

Toluca64.8%

Draw20.2%

Necaxa15%

All Bets & Odds

Home Win

64.8%

Best 1.55

Draw

20.2%

Best 4.73

Away Win

15%

Best 6.40

Result Odds

Live odds across 39 bookmakers

#	Bookmaker	HomeHome Win	Draw	AwayAway Win	Payout %
1	Jack	1.49	4.18	4.82	89.5%
2	Pinnacle	1.51	4.30	6.12	94.7%
3	Betpanda	1.51	4.30	5.60	93.2%
4	DraftKings	1.50	4.20	5.50	92%
5	BetOnline	1.55	4.25	5.94	95.2%
6	LowVig	1.55	4.25	5.94	95.2%
7	BetUS	1.55	4.25	5.94	95.2%
8	GTbets	1.52	4.36	5.72	94.3%
9	Coolbet	1.52	4.50	5.75	94.9%
10	Betfair Exchange Exchange	1.50	4.52	5.56	93.7%
11	Kalshi Exchange	1.50	4.73	5.56	94.6%
12	Matchbook Exchange	1.50	4.55	5.70	94.2%
13	LeoVegas	1.50	4.30	5.10	91.3%
14	Fanatics	1.50	4.50	6.00	94.7%
15	Bet365	1.50	4.50	5.50	93.4%
16	BetVictor	1.50	4.40	5.25	92.2%
17	Betway	1.50	4.33	5.50	92.6%
18	1xBet	1.49	4.25	5.99	93.2%
19	Sportsbet	1.48	4.60	5.70	93.6%
20	Marathonbet	1.48	4.25	5.95	92.7%
21	Neds	1.48	4.20	4.80	89.2%
22	FanDuel	1.48	4.60	5.70	93.4%
23	Betfair Sportsbook	1.47	4.50	5.50	92.2%
24	betPARX	1.47	4.30	6.10	92.7%
25	BetRivers	1.47	4.30	6.10	92.7%
26	Casumo	1.47	4.30	6.10	92.7%
27	Grosvenor	1.47	4.30	6.10	92.7%
28	Betsson	1.46	4.45	6.40	93.9%
29	NordicBet	1.46	4.45	6.40	93.9%
30	TABtouch	1.46	4.25	6.10	92%
31	Tipico	1.45	4.60	5.50	91.8%
32	888sport	1.44	3.80	5.00	86.5%
33	Paddy Power	1.44	4.50	5.50	91.2%
34	William Hill	1.44	3.80	5.00	86.5%
35	Sky Bet	1.44	4.00	4.75	86.6%
36	LiveScore Bet	1.44	4.20	6.00	91%
37	Virgin Bet	1.42	4.20	6.00	90.2%
38	Unibet Geo-check	1.52	4.35	5.00	92%

Unavailable
39	Fliff ClosedUnranked	1.44	4.40	5.60	91%

Live oddsAll odds are subject to changeShowing 6 of 39

Player Props

A standout prop for each player, with the match's biggest names first.

Market Analytics

Expected Score

Toluca22.3 xG

–

Necaxa11.0 xG

Market favors Toluca by 1 goal

Outcome	Model	Market
Most likely score (2–1)	9.7%	—
Both teams score	59.2%	60.8%

Scoreline Probabilities

Toluca goals →

Necaxa goals →

	0	1	2
0	4.4%	2.8%
1	7.3%	9.3%	4.4%
2	9.3%	9.7%	5.1%
3	7.2%	7.5%	3.9%
4+	7.1%	7.4%	3.9%

Less likelyMore likely

This model matches the pre-match odds to within ±0.1 percentage points.

Value & Signals

Best Price

Same bet, cheapest book. Line-shop this market across sportsbooks.

Outcome	Avg	Best	/ $100
Home Win	1.48	1.55 BetOnline	+$6.22	Bet
Draw	4.33	4.73 Kalshi	+$40.32	Bet
Away Win	5.68	6.40 Betsson	+$71.91	Bet

Bets to Watch

Top value picks across every market and player prop, or the most likely props when the market's too efficient for an edge.

BetChanceOddsBook

LikelyHelinho

Shots On Target · 1+ Shot on Target

67%1.49

BetRivers

LikelyNicolás Federico Castro

Shots On Target · 1+ Shot on Target

65%1.55

BetRivers

LikelyLuan

Shots On Target · 1+ Shot on Target

39%2.55

BetRivers

Lineup & Player Match Stats

Projected

Gonzalez

García

Luan

Méndez

Barbosa

Guzmán

Juárez

Vega

Helinho

Angulo

Díaz

Toluca·4-2-3-1

Select a Player

Tap on any player chip on the pitch to view detailed stats and prop bets.

Match Stats History

Recent Form

Last 5

Toluca1W 0D 1L · last 2

L1-2

W2-0

50%

Necaxa1W 0D 0L · last 1

W2-1

100%

Match Preview

Toluca vs Necaxa: Preview, Predictions & Betting Analysis

Tolucavs

Necaxa·Liga MX

65%Toluca win probability

Mediumconfidence

Match Overview

The market leans towards Toluca without writing off the other side.

Toluca welcome Necaxa in this Liga MX match, on Sunday, August 2, 2026.

Toluca bring 1 win and 1 defeat from their last 2 (L-W, most recent first), averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded.

Necaxa bring 1 win from their last 1 (W, most recent first), averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded.

Market Read

Bookmakers make Toluca clear favourites at 1.55, a 65% chance across 38 books.

Best prices across the market: Toluca at 1.55 (65%), the draw at 4.73 (20%), Necaxa at 6.40 (15%).

The model projects around 2-1 goals, favouring Toluca by about 1 goals (derived from totals + spread lines).

Value & Signals

There's a moderate 8% gap between the best and worst of 38 books.

Market Activity

39 bookmakers are currently pricing this match. Over the past seven days, prices have held steady.

Betting Verdict

For a longer shot, Necaxa are available at 6.40 (15%).

Our Pick: Toluca

Toluca are the market's pick at 65%. There's no standout price edge here, so it's a confidence call rather than a value one. Book agreement rates this a medium-confidence call.

Bet Home Win 1.55 @ BetOnline

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Toluca vs Necaxa?

Our model makes Toluca the clear favourite at a 65% win probability versus the draw 20%, Necaxa 15%. Toluca have won 1 of their last 2 (LW, most recent first). Best bet: Toluca to win at 1.55.

What are the odds for Toluca vs Necaxa?

The best available prices are Toluca 1.55, the draw 4.73, Necaxa 6.40. The best price you can back on Toluca is 1.55 with BetOnline, about a 65% chance, compared across 38 sportsbooks and updated live.

What is the predicted score for Toluca vs Necaxa?

Our model projects a final score of around Toluca 2-1 Necaxa, favouring Toluca by around 1 goal, with a projected total of about 3.5 goals (derived from totals + spread lines).

When do Toluca and Necaxa play?

Toluca vs Necaxa kicks off on Sunday, 2 August 2026 at 21:00.

Where can I bet on Toluca vs Necaxa?

Compare live odds from 38 sportsbooks on this page. BetOnline currently has the best price on Toluca at 1.55.